More on statistics following my link to Colin Trainor’s excellent piece about Stewart Downing. This time it’s Richard Whittall writing for Counter Attack:
The temptation after the 2012-13 season in which United regained the title was to immediately cast aspersions on shot dominance (TSR) as a reliable predictive metric. Except what needs to be understood here is that TSR doesn’t perfectly correlate to end of season points totals (otherwise football would be pretty boring, and weird). There is room for standard deviation, and random variation, too, in addition to a lack of drive in the final third, or whatever. And that messy soup can give a team like United, who otherwise weren’t a dominant team, enough to give them the title.